Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios for Miesso Meteorological Station, Eastern Ethiopia

Abstract

The knowledge of future climate information at local level has enormous advantage in Ethiopia, where the driver of the economy is agriculture. This study was conducted to downscale the climate change scenarios for Miesso station for the year 2011-2099. Daily climate data and normalized large scale Hadley Centre coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) model predictors were used for downscaling climate change scenarios. The change for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures were developed using the HadCM3 A2a and B2a Emission Scenarios by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.1software. The SDSM analysis showed an increasing trend for both annual precipitation and temperatures. Accordingly, the average monthly and annual minimum and maximum temperatures were found to rise in 2020, 2050 and 2080s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios. Nevertheless in 2080s, the average annual maximum temperature increment would be high for both A2a and B2a scenarios. Therefore the use of seasonal climate outlook information and introduction of new crops, varieties and management practices that goes in line with the changing climate patterns is suggested for the study area.